The future of mobility—and the auto industry
In collaboration with Automotive News, Deloitte provides a look at the fast-moving automotive industry. In this year’s issue, Express lane ahead | Finding new roads to value creation as the automotive industry transforms, Deloitte cover some of the fascinating shifts unfolding in the industry today:
• A conversation with Mandi Damman, chief autonomous vehicles engineer at GM
• Insights from our tenth Global Auto Consumer Study
• Exploration into how digital technologies can elevate the car-buying experience
• Ideas on monetizing data in the age of connected vehicles
• A framework for M&A in the rapidly changing automotive industry
Designing a Seamless Integrated Mobility System (SIMSystem): A Manifesto for Transforming Passenger and Goods Mobility Deloitte/World Economic Forum
As more than 2 billion people are added to the global population in the coming decades and urban populations continue to grow, the question arises: how will we move them, and the goods they require, more efficiently and effectively than today? This collaborative effort from Deloitte’s Future of Mobility practice and the World Economic Forum examines this question and how a seamless integrated mobility system is needed to address future mobility challenges.
Public–private Collaborations for Transforming Urban Mobility
McKinsey & Coalition for Urban Transitions
cities around the world have begun to integrate new private mobility services into their transportation systems through partnerships. While it’s too soon to tell whether these partnerships are succeeding, they do point toward possibilities that other cities may wish to consider. This report summarises the development of new mobility partnerships, identifies potential applications for new mobility services in public-transit systems, and models the economic and environmental impact of those applications. The findings suggest that cities and their residents stand to benefit greatly from the features new mobility services have introduced into urban transportation systems.
Chasing Mobility Australian Cities’ Rankings
Australian cities are rapidly developing and investing in integrated mobility systems to meet the needs of the future but are currently behind other global comparable cities. Most Australian cities sit around the middle of the Index. A lack of comprehensive underground metro systems and dependence on private vehicles deters mobility in Australian cities, and all have less travel made by foot, bike and public transport than their peer cities.
Powering The Future of Mobility – How the Electric Power Sector Can Prepare For its Critical Role in the New Transportation Ecosystem
Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions
This article explores how a growing electric vehicle fleet, accelerated by other mobility trends such as shared and self-driving cars, could affect power and utility companies’ possible choices. We lay out why EV adoption may be at an inflection point, examine how the emergence of a new mobility ecosystem could create a symbiotic relationship between EVs, autonomous vehicles, and ridesharing, and look at how electric companies might turn these trends to their advantage. Last, informed by a new Deloitte survey of industry executives, we lay out some of the key steps utility executives can begin taking now to capitalize on an increasingly electric future of mobility.
The Melbourne – Brisbane Inland Rail
The Melbourne to Brisbane Inland Rail project is anticipated to transform the movement of freight around the country and have significant impact on industrial property, its users and providers across regional Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. Colliers key findings include:
- Improved supply efficiencies of inter-capital freight, which will in turn improve national productivity;
- Reduced congestion on major national highway routes across south eastern Australia;
- The potential creation of new intermodal facilities and transport and logistic hubs in key strategic locations;
- The relocation to and/or emergence of inter-capital freight users in key strategic locations;
- A potential uplift in industrial land values for precincts in close proximity to the rail route (occupier-led demand);
- Increased usage of the existing Ports of Brisbane and Melbourne.
Modernizing Government’s Approach to Transportation and Land Use Data: Challenges and Opportunities
Brookings – Adie Tomer and Ranjitha Shivaram
20 July, 2017
In the fields of transportation and land use planning, the public sector has long taken the leading role in the collection, analysis, and dissemination of data. Often, public data sets drawn from traveler diaries, surveys, and supply-side transportation maps were the only way to understand how people move around in the built environment – how they get to work, how they drop kids off at school, where they choose to work out or relax, and so on.But, change is afoot: today, there are not only new data providers, but also new types of data. Cellphones, GPS trackers, and other navigation devices offer real-time demand-side data.
The future of freight – How new technology and new thinking can transform how goods are moved
28 June 2017
It’s easy to envision self-driving trucks safely and efficiently carrying shipments down US highways. But that’s only part of any product’s journey between manufacturer and customer. How will the new mobility ecosystem handle the whole trip, including the trickiest part of all: last-mile delivery?
Scenarios For Land Transport In 2040
Prepared for the National Transport Commission by the Australian Futures Project September 2016
This report presents four qualitative scenarios about what land transport could look like in 2040. They have been prepared for the National Transport Commission to inform their work on the trends, influences and changes in society that will impact Australia’s transport system into the future.
The scenarios are narratives that have been developed with stakeholders about a wide range of plausible futures. Their purpose is to prompt conversation and engagement on where we might be headed as well as where we are now. The scenarios are alternative visions of what could happen. They are not about what we think should occur, nor are they predictions of what is most likely to occur.
The Future of Mobility
By 2030, 60 percent of people will live in cities.1 Population surge is overwhelming transport infrastructure, and urban sprawl adds to the congestion, worsening air purity and quality of life.2 This impacts city economies and contributed to an estimated 7 million premature deaths in 2012.3
Mobile is now a must for cities and businesses alike, in part because 58 percent of American adults and 76 percent of millennials are addicted to their smartphones.4 That’s creating skyrocketing demand for mobile customer experiences. And people are sharing, not buying. Estimated at $335 billion by 2025,5 the sharing economy brings customers on-demand conveniences at a lower cost
Two urban mobility trends to start planning for:
Shared mobility and predictability
Demand management via mobile app
How Cities Can Plan For Automated Vehicles
Tech Policy Lab University Of Washington
The advent of automated vehicles (AVs)—also known as driverless or self-driving cars—alters many assumptions about automotive travel. Foremost, of course, is the assumption that a vehicle requires a driver: a human occupant who controls the direction and speed of the vehicle, who is responsible for attentively monitoring the vehicle’s environment, and who is liable for most accidents involving the vehicle. By changing these and other fundamentals of transportation, AV technologies present opportunities but also challenges for policymakers across a wide range of legal and policy areas. To address these challenges, federal and state governments are already developing regulations and guidelines for AVs.
Seattle and other municipalities should also prepare for the introduction and adoption of these new technologies. To facilitate preparation for AVs at the municipal level, this whitepaper—the result of research conducted at the University of Washington’s interdisciplinary Tech Policy Lab—identifies the major legal and policy issues that Seattle and similar cities will need to consider in light of new AV technologies.
An Integrated Perspective On The Future Of Mobility
Bloomberg New Energy Finance & McKinsey
To view a city from above is to observe a world in motion. Trains carry people to and from work; taxis circulate in abstract patterns; trucks deliver goods and carry away garbage; pedestrians hustle down city blocks; cyclists zip through traffic. Mobility is the lifeblood of our cities and essential for urban life.
What, then, will be the future of urban mobility? This report, co-produced by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and McKinsey & Company, seeks to answer that question. To do so, it explores how a number of existing social, economic, and technological trends will work together to disrupt mobility at the local level.
The result is a radically different future based around three models of advanced urban mobility that are achievable by 2030. Inevitably, individual cities will make different decisions, based on specific local conditions, and go in different directions – while, globally, mobility systems in 2030 will on average look very much like they do today.
Driving Change: Australia’s Cities Need A Measured Response.
Infrastructure Partnerships Australia
Infrastructure Partnerships Australia and Uber have partnered together to produce Australia’s first regular measurement of road network performance – the IPA Transport Metric – spanning:
- Brisbane; and
The IPA Transport Metric, released for the first time in this paper, measures travel times across the day – providing new information about how the road network performs in the morning and afternoon peak periods, as well as shoulder and non-peak periods, across three zones:
– CBD zone;
– The inner metro zone; and
– Outer metro zone.
Future Of Mobility – What’s Next?
A year ago, Deloitte theorized that the extended global automotive industry was undergoing an unprecedented transformation into a new mobility ecosystem. Since then, the pace of change has been nothing short of breathtaking. Through hundreds of conversations with corporate executives, government leaders, technologists, and academics around the globe, Deloitte have scored a front row seat to how the future of mobility is evolving. In particular, we have witnessed:
- Broad acceptance of the core tenets of how this evolution will unfold
- Governments catalysing the emergence of a new mobility ecosystem
- Significant moves by industry incumbents and disruptors to enact the future
Change is coming soon—and the extended automotive industry will have to rapidly adjust to rising consumer expectations. Frictionless, automated, personalized travel on demand—that’s the dream of
the future of mobility. And the future mobility ecosystem’s various elements are coalescing to realize that dream sooner than expected, which means that incumbents and disruptors need to move at top speed to get on board.
Economic Effects Of Ridesharing In Australia
The impact of the launch, and subsequent growth of Uber, and particularly its UberX platform is playing out as one of Australia’s most compelling sharing economy and digital disruption stories.
This report, commissioned by Uber, looks at the impacts of the new ridesharing economy on consumers, uberX driver-partners and the wider community.
Key report findings include:
- Operating at current levels, uberX creates benefits for consumers of approximately $81 million per year
- Ridesharing is growing the point-to-point transport market, with more than 60% of uberX rides new to the point-to-point transport market
- uberX services are, on average, just under 20% cheaper than equivalent taxi fares, including dynamic (surge) pricing.
Cities Of The Future – Technology And Mobility
The National League Of Cities (NLC)
The National League of Cities’ City of the Future initiative explores existing trends and predicts future developments so that cities can anticipate changes in the urban landscape and prepare accordingly. The first report in this series focuses on the nexus between technology and mobility. Technology is leading cities to more dynamic transportation systems where people shift seamlessly between multiple modes depending on their needs. Mobility options are fundamental to providing a robust platform for economic activity and human interaction within the urban environment.
Today, rapid technological advances coupled with shifts in demographics and public preferences are dramatically altering the nature of transportation in cities. Technology’s ever-growing impact has profound and far reaching implications for the future of urban mobility.
This report draws conclusions from a variety of sources, including existing literature, expert interviews and transportation plans. The NLC have discovered widening gaps between innovation in the private sector, the expressed preferences of citizens and the visions of city planners regarding transportation investment.
Securing Australia’s Future – Delivering Sustainable Urban Mobility
The Australian Council Of Learned Academies (ACOLA)
Australia is one of the most urbanised nations in the world, with almost two thirds of the population concentrated in five metropolitan areas. Projected urban expansion, and the residential expectations of many Australians, are raising acute questions relating to the planning and provision of social, economic and physical infrastructure, with mobility and accessibility at the centre. The capacity for Australia to transition to affordable, reliable, low emission transport will underpin the future security of the mobility of people and goods. This report synthesizes cutting-edge research on alternatives which look at optimising the transport system for lower emissions within and between innovative urban infrastructures, and will examine effective ways to counter the institutional and cultural obstacles to transformational change.
The Future of Mobility – How Transportation Technology And Social Trends are Creating A New Business Ecosystem
Deloitte University Press
Will technological advances and shifts in social attitudes lead to our no longer owning or driving vehicles? The global auto industry’s transformation has far-reaching implications for how we move from point A to point B and, in turn, affects carmakers, energy companies, insurers, health care, government funding, and more. Value shifts as a new ecosystem of mobility emerges. There is a critically important dialogue going on across the extended global automotive industry about the future evolution of transportation and mobility. This debate is driven by the convergence of a series of industry-changing forces and mega-trends.
Urban Mobility At A Tipping Point
Shannon Bouton, Stefan M. Knupfer, Ivan Mihov, And Steven Swartz – McKinsey
As more of the world’s cities become congested and polluted, new business models and technologies are emerging to solve the mobility challenge.
The existing urban infrastructure cannot support an increase in vehicles on the road. Congestion is already close to unbearable in many cities and can cost as much as 2 to 4 percent of national GDP, by measures such as lost time, wasted fuel, and increased cost of doing business. However, the future does not have to be this way.
Solving the mobility challenge will require bold, coordinated actions from the private and public sectors. Technological advances and commercialization, funding, intelligent policies, and business-model innovation will be needed to realize productivity improvements while creating more sustainable environments in our cities. We are optimistic that this will help the world avoid a future of global gridlock. Already, there is discernible movement toward new “multimodal” services—those that facilitate journeys combining walking, cars, buses, bikes, and trains—as well as shared transportation services.
The speed and extent of the mobility transformation will differ. In this report, McKinsey lay out a framework that describes the evolution of urban mobility. They also highlight a set of urban archetypes, defined by population density and the maturity of public transit; each archetype can be expected to take a different path to mobility. Their analysis suggests that a mobility revolution is on the way for much of the world. As a result, they anticipate big improvements in the quality of life for city residents.
Smart Mobility: Reducing Congestion And Fostering Faster, Greener, And Cheaper Transportation Options
Deloitte University Press
For decades, many governments have tried to develop solutions to address traffic congestion, yet commute times continue to lengthen in most of America’s urban centers. It’s time for a new approach.
The Pathway To Driverless Cars – Summary Report And Action Plan
This review identifies issues that need to be addressed to enable automated vehicle technology testing on UK roads whilst maintaining high levels of road safety. It covers the best and safest ways to trial vehicles where a qualified individual is present who is capable of taking control of the car. It also looks further ahead, to the implications of potential use of fully autonomous vehicles.
In Motion: How Intelligence Is Driving The Changing Nature Of Cities
Our cities are massive, interconnected systems marked by complexity. The two most fundamental systems, the built environment and the transportation network in place to help navigate it, are on the brink of radical transformation. In this edition of FutureStructure, they examine how smart communities and intelligent transportation systems are paving the way forward for cities. From driverless cars to zero-net energy neighborhoods to self-healing concrete, cities are the 21st century intersection of ideas, infrastructure and technology.
ICT & The Future Of Transport
Imperial College London And Ericsson
Transport is one of the most interesting industries from the perspective of industrial disruption due to the amount of disruption that the industry is undergoing at the moment. Transport is therefore indicative of the emerging issues that may face other industries, from the use and application of data to the development of autonomous vehicles based on sensors and wireless connectivity, leading to numerous regulatory complexities.
Many technological advances are being developed within the transport industry covering chemistry, physical engineering and nanotechnology. This report focuses solely on the ICT aspects that create industrial disruption, and these other material science aspects are beyond the scope of the report.