The Unprecedented Expansion of the Global Middle Class
Over the next ten years, the world’s global middle class may expand faster than at any other time in history. Nearly 160 million people will join the middle class over the next five years and that the middle class will be spending $29 trillion more per year by 2030. Brookings provides an updated look at the evolution of the global middle class, including four key developments that have shaped recent calculations of its growth.
Demography as an Investment Opportunity
People are living longer; the global population is growing. This global demographic trend is an investment opportunity when viewed properly
A Silver Lining – The Investment Implications of an Aging World
The aging of the global population will have profound consequences for individuals, businesses, and governments.
The longevity mega-trend also opens up important opportunities for investors around the world. To identify investment ideas that could be accessed by institutional investors, we interviewed a range of investment professionals across PGIM, conducted new proprietary research on consumer spending patterns, and met with industry experts in technology, life sciences, venture capital, demography, and actuarial sciences. We believe institutional investors should focus their attention on five resulting investable themes within the broad areas of real estate, health care, and technology: multifamily condos, senior housing, urban life sciences clusters, pharmaceuticals and biotech, and technology enabled medical services and devices.
Using Deep Learning and Google Street View to Estimate the Demographic Makeup of the US
Timnit Gebru, Jonathan Krause, YilunWang, Duyun Chen, Jia Deng , Erez Lieberman Aiden, Li Fei-Fei
The American Community Survey (ACS), a labor-intensive door-to-door study that measures statistics relating to race, gender, education, occupation, unemployment, and other demographic factors. Although a comprehensive source of data, the lag between demographic changes and their appearance in the ACS can exceed half a decade. As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may provide a cheaper and faster alternative. Here, these researchers present a method that determines socioeconomic trends from 50 million images of street scenes, gathered in 200 American cities by Google Street View cars. Using deep learning-based computer vision techniques, we determined the make, model, and year of all motor vehicles encountered in particular neighbourhoods. Data from this census of motor vehicles, which enumerated 22M automobiles in total (8% of all automobiles in the US), was used to accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns, with single precinct resolution.
CEDA Migration Report
CEDA has undertaken this report because public policy improvements are needed to ensure previous strong community support for migration is re-established; fair treatment for both temporary and permanent migrants; and that the country continues to reap the economic benefits from the skills that a balanced migration program brings.
The report in fact shows how with the right policies, annual permanent migration intakes could be doubled over the next 40 years and deliver significant per capita economic activity. Seventeen recommendations are presented. These range
- Influencing Australia’s settlement pattern, with particular beneficial impacts of migration in regions and Northern Australia;
- Consideration of the impact of the current migration program on Melbourne and Sydney and subsequent future infrastructure and services requirements;
- Providing a more robust model for determining occupation shortages with respect of 457 visas;
- Shifting to a universal points test for permanent skilled migrants and tightening entry requirements relating to age, skills and English-language proficiency;
- Reviewing and capping the working holiday visa program and possibly introducing a purpose built guest worker program for specific industries struggling to attract adequate low-skilled workers;
- Increasing penalties for exploiting migrant workers; and
- Improving settlement services and support, access to English language programs and recognition of foreign qualifications.
Australian Millennials Shaping The Future Of Real Estate
Millennials currently account for 35% of the Australian workforce and are set to reach 40% by 2030. This emerging workforce is guiding much forward thinking for employers and is redefining real estate occupancy requirements. There have been many preconceptions about millennials, some are true and some are false.
Key findings about Australian millennials (from the broader CBRE Research Global Millennial Survey) suggest the following:
- A preference for F&B and retail experience. Retailers and property owners need to consider these behavioural preferences when designing/managing their centres.
- Opinions on work, not what they seem. Like previous generations, they want stability and opportunities to develop their skills. Close to two-thirds of millennials expect to work for the same company, or for a small number of companies, throughout their career. However, they factor in lifestyle elements such as office design, meaningful “relationships” with their colleagues and managers, and flexible working.
- Office layout and environment are important too. While preference for new amenities are common across all generations, it is the strongest for millennials – this includes more greenspace, wellness/relaxation facilities and games rooms. However, it appears that millennials are happy with the amount of end of trip facilities provided – showers and bike racks.
Like previous generations, millennials aspire to own their own property. However, housing affordability is an issue for Australian millennials, forcing them to rent instead.
Journey Towards 50 million – Through The Lens: Megatrends Shaping Our Future
Planning Institute Of Australia
PIA commissioned Through the lens: megatrends shaping our future which identifies a range of demographic and disruptive megatrends that will shape the future of Australia through the 21st century. This report forms a baseline when working with stakeholders to develop a range of future scenarios which will help shape informed policy positions.
Urban World: Meeting The Demographic Challenge In Cities
McKinsey Global Institute
The days of easy growth in the world’s cities are over, and how they respond to demographic shifts will influence their prosperity. The past 50 years were truly unusual in demographic terms, as large cohorts of working-age populations fueled the growth of cities and nations. In the new demographic era, we are likely to see a much more fragmented urban landscape, with pockets of robust expansion but also areas of stagnant and declining populations. Cities’ growth prospects will reflect very different demographic footprints and dynamics shaped by their local birth and death rates, net domestic migration, and net international migration.
In a new report, Urban World: Meeting the demographic challenges, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) compares three developed countries and regions to understand the implications.
Demographic Strategies For Real Estate
John Burns and ULI
Rising numbers of female executives, affluent immigrants, younger and older workers, and retirees will have a profound influence on community building in the U.S. over the next ten years, according to a new ULI Terwilliger Center Report, Demographic Strategies for Real Estate. This report addresses urban living, which has enjoyed a modest resurgence, and will continue to grow in popularity— but mostly in the suburbs. Additionally, it coins the word “surban™” for these developments—bringing the best of urban living to a more affordable suburban environment.
Asia Pacific Millennials: Shaping The Future Of Real Estate
Millennials comprise 25% of the workforce in Asia Pacific, represent the fastest growing source of spending power regionally and serve as the most influential demographic framing future trends in real estate through their lifestyle behaviour, requirements and priorities.
CBRE Research asked 5,000 millennials across the region about their live, work and play ambitions. The result – Asia Pacific’s most comprehensive study into the economic contribution and lifestyle priorities of this emerging superclass.
Key takeaways include:
- Millennials will continue to LIVE with family until they have the financial means to live independently. Home ownership is a priority, but not at the expense of quality of life.
- Millennials seek WORK that provides them with inspiration, responsibility and career progression. Increasingly, they value office space design in career choices.
- Millennials like to PLAY. Experiences such as travel, entertainment and dining are lifestyle priorities, shopping is not digital-only.
To Asia Pacific millennials, locations such as apartments, offices and shopping malls are more than just destinations to live, work and play. Occupiers and landlords should take stock or lose share of wallet.
Journey Towards 50 million
Planning Institute Of Australia
PIA has stepped forward to lead the debate on the need for a coordinated national strategy to manage population growth. PIA commissioned Through the lens: megatrends shaping our future which identifies a range of demographic and disruptive megatrends that will shape the future of Australia through the 21st century. This report forms a baseline when working with stakeholders to develop a range of future scenarios which will help shape informed policy positions.
Urban World, The Global Consumers To Watch:
McKinsey Global Institute
Sweeping demographic change is transforming the world economy. In 2015, MGI explored the impact of an aging world on global GDP growth, and the imperative to boost productivity to make up for slowing growth in the labor pool. Now they turn more specifically to how slowing population growth is likely to shape global consumption over the next 15 years, with a focus on large cities whose inhabitants will generate over 90 percent of consumption growth between 2015 and 2030.
The Future Of Work – How Can We Adapt to Survive And Thrive?
Our economy and society are being shaped by large-scale shifts, from globalisation to digital disruption. Businesses are facing more intense pressures to respond to changing customer demands and new market entrants. Policy makers are reshaping their agendas. The forces of disruption are not just being driven by start-ups and felt by business leaders – they’re driving change in the workforce and labour market. Two-thirds of those with less than five years’ experience (early-career Australians) expect that their job will not exist, or will fundamentally change, in the next 15 years. If they are correct, this means that there is likely to be a period of transition. Many will have to reskill, retrain or change jobs.
As a nation, we need to ask ourselves some key questions. How do we prepare? How do individuals equip themselves for career success? How do we provide education which is agile enough to keep pace with changing needs? How do businesses attract, incentivise and retain talent? How do policy makers facilitate flexibility and the knowledge economy?
Deloitte Access Economics explored how mega-trends are changing the future of work, drawing on a survey of over 1,400 Australian labour market participants. The paper discusses the impacts of technology on employment, winding career paths and tenure, the importance of education, and how individual goals may evolve over time. It also considers implications for business, including the importance of diversity and the opportunities and challenges of globalisation.
Progress In Australian Regions—Yearbook 2015
Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development
The Progress in Australian Regions—Yearbook provides a statistical resource that aims to help all Australians to understand how their region is progressing against economic, social, environmental and governance indicators. The Yearbook brings together information about Australia’s regions from a range of different sources and presents that data in a consistent format over time.
Housing Decisions Of Older Australians
The report continues the investigation of issues relating to the ageing of Australia’s population, this time focusing on the housing choices made by older Australians. It considers available statistical evidence on the financial and accommodation aspects of housing decisions and draws out some of the policy issues affecting the wellbeing of older Australians and the broader community. The report examines the policies affecting the supply and cost of residential aged care and other age-specific housing, the influence of the tax and transfer system on housing decisions, and the issues in using home equity release to support living standards in retirement. In reaching its conclusions, the Commission drew on evidence from a survey of older Australians conducted on its behalf.
Deloitte Mobile Consumer Survey 2015: The Australian Cut
This annual report provides a unique demographic insight into Australians’ mobile device usage and related preferences, specifically in relation to: smartphone penetration, dependency on devices, network preferences (WiFi/4G/3G), content consumption, payments and retail, Internet of Things/wearables, to name a few. The report also contains some global comparisons as the survey was conducted in 30 countries around the globe.
In the Deloitte Mobile Consumer Survey 2015: The Australian Cut, Deloitte call out these five trends important for all businesses whether finance, retail, technology or telecommunications.
- Game of Phones’ – the battle of devices
- Managing our multi-dimensional lives – Australia’s Social Revolution
- The need for speed – anywhere, anyhow, anytime – all the time and lots of it
- Retail Reinvented – shifting ‘down-time’ into ‘browse-time’
- Grandmas Taking Selfies – and posting
Job Posting Growth In Victoria Is 2X Greater Than In Australia Overall
Victoria is now the country’s fastest growing state, new data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. The recently released population statistics reveal “an extraordinary surge” in population in Victoria growing by a rate of 1.7% compared to 1.4% in NSW and Western Australia.
This surge is reflected on Indeed, where we’ve seen job postings grow two times faster in Victoria that in Australia overall from Q1 2013 to Q2 2015. As a result, Victoria’s share of all job postings in Australia has risen from 18.5% to 23.1% over the same time period.
The Indeed data indicate that interest in jobs in Victoria make up 25% of all job seeker interest in Australia highlighting the appeal of the state as a destination to live and work. The ABS report shows that Victoria has benefited from a surge in internal migration as people from other cities seek more affordable housing and good job prospects, with 37,800 Australians moving to Victoria from other states.
The rising cost of living in Sydney and Brisbane has been pushing many residents to consider the more reasonably priced real estate in Victoria. Interestingly, Sydney and Brisbane rank among the top five Australian cities where job seekers interested in Victoria job openings are currently located.
With population projections produced by ABS predicting Melbourne’s population to exceed Sydney’s, we may see more companies setting up shop in the area to capitalize on the availability of talent there.
Millennials: Cafe Culture Comes To Wall Street
Christopher O’Dea Investments And Pension Europe (IPE)
Millennials are already changing the face of business and lifestyle. Christopher O’Dea looks at how this new-technology era is affecting economies and investment.
At a glance
- The Millennials are the generation of individuals born between 1980 and 1999.
- The demands of this new digital generation are already reshaping the economy.
- Millennials themselves are simply the most obvious manifestation of the development of new technologies.
- These digital natives typically earn less than their parents, are willing to live in small spaces and often socialise in coffee shops.
Super Connected Jobs
Understanding Australia’s Future Workforce
Super Connected Jobs – Understanding Australia’s future workforce: The Australian nation and economy will change profoundly over the decade to 2025. The population will increase from 24 million to 28 million. The workforce will increase from 11 million to 13 million. And the way Australians work, where they work and the type of work done, will change. The NBN has prepared the Super Connected Jobs Report to help us understand the significant benefits technology can bring and identify where employment will change over time.
Australian Under Siege From A Revolutionary Life Form: Big City Babies
Australia is under siege. Out cities are under siege. And especially central cores of our largest cities. And the insidious life form that is infiltrating every aspect of Australian life? Why that’d be babies of course.
Which Population Forecast Should I Use?
Knowing how the population will change is extremely valuable for any organisation that is planning for the future. There are many forecasts available, produced by different organisations for various purposes, using different assumptions and methodologies. This alone can have a big effect on the outcome of the forecast. In this 50-page eBook, .id have compiled a comprehensive guide of the available population forecasts in Australia;
- who produces them
- what assumptions they use
- what outputs are available
- what geography they cover
- what level of detail.
Implications Of Lower Population Growth For The Australian Economy
Australia experienced rapid population growth over much of the past decade, both by the standards of recent decades and in comparison with other advanced economies. Recently, however, population growth has declined to be well below the rates experienced over most of the preceding five years. The RBA looks at the implications for the Australian economy.
Progress In Australian Regions: State Of Regional Australia 2015
Department Of Infrastructure And Regional Development
State of Regional Australia—2015 uses data from its companion publication Progress in Australian Regions—Yearbook 2014 to illustrate the trends and patterns of economic and social progress in regional Australia. State of Regional Australia 2015 includes a number of case studies to demonstrate the different aspects of this variation and how they have changed over time. The report analyses data pertaining to regional Australia and includes chapters on demographics, economics, structural change, social progress and infrastructure. The report also shows that infrastructure continues to support regional Australian economies by promoting the efficient flow of people and resources while also providing regional Australians with access to essential services such as education and health.
Australia’s Future Workforce?
CEDA’s major research report for 2015, Australia’s future workforce? focuses on what jobs and skills we need to develop to ensure our economy continues to grow and diversify. Discussion around jobs often focuses on the here and now. However, if Australia is to maintain a robust economy that is internationally competitive, we must plan now for the changes, challenges and opportunities we face in developing the right jobs and skills for future generations.
In this report, CEDA examines:
- How the next wave of the industrial revolution will fundamentally reshape business activity;
- The high probability that 40 per cent of Australia’s workforce, more than five million people, could be replaced by automation within the next 10 to 20 years;
- Changes that will occur in the five key sectors identified in the Federal Government’s innovation plan;
- Jobs of the future and exporting and outsourcing opportunities;
- How businesses operating on the technological frontier are adapting;
- What digital disruption means to existing business practices; and
- What policy levers are available to maximise opportunities.
Population Densities Of Australian Capital Cities – Melbourne And Sydney
How dense are we? Population densities have traditionally provided information on the distribution of populations across space. By assessing how dense an area is in terms of population, we can determine possible pressures on existing services and infrastructure, remoteness of a community, opportunity for growth and expansion of communities as well as strategies for redistribution of population from denser areas to less dense ones. Incorporating population density analysis into strategic planning of cities also allows us to visualise areas which may produce additional pressure on existing transport corridors, public transport and plan for new services and infrastructure for future population growth in currently ‘dormant’ areas (i.e. upcoming greenfield/brownfield growth areas).
This paper explores the 2011 population density of Sydney and Melbourne capital cities (by SA1 as the geographic unit) and analyses what it is that dictates the population density distributions in these cities. The information is illustrated in thematic 3D maps (extruded and colour coded by population density per km2) with commentary on each city attempting to give readers a bit of insight into the similarities and differences between our state capitals and comparing certain densities to those of other world cities.
Australia Taking Our Place In The World: Skills And Challenges Of The Coming Decade
Bernard Salt is one of Australia’s leading demographers and social commentators. His presentation entitled Australia Taking Our Place in the World: Skills and Challenges of the Coming Decade was presented at the Project Management Institutes’ Annual Conference on 25 May 2015.
Big City Analytics: Identifying Sydney’s Economic, Employment And Population Centres Of Gravity
PWC And The Committee For Sydney
Identifying Sydney’s economic, employment and population Centres of GravityCities are engines of growth and innovation. While all cities have these key functions, the best cities organise themselves to maximise their potential. They ensure they have the public transport networks, housing densities, skills and governance needed to manage and leverage growth. However, it is increasingly recognised that also at the heart of effective ‘city performance-management’ are the analytical tools which enable a better understanding of the key forces or trends shaping the city. Although there is now a big literature on ‘city analytics’ and measures of urban performance, there is not as yet a universally agreed assessment framework or set of indicators enabling us to identify the key factors of success or failure. There is a plethora of competing and often inconsistent city performance league tables or indices. In this context the Committee for Sydney and Committee member PwC have released an Issues Paper seeking to elevate the importance of using emerging analytic tools to understand and manage city performance. The analysis was carried out for all major Australian cities with an in-depth look at Sydney. Big city thinking requires big city analytics.
Older Australians At Work
Bernard Salt – KPMG
Leading demographer and social commentator, Bernard Salt, looks at Australia’s ageing population as an agent of social and economic change. Bernard presented at a conference hosted by the Human Rights Commission entitled Older Australians at Work.
The Rise Of Victoria
The Victorian populating is currently booming, with growing ranks of younger people rejuvenating the population profile. Partly this is being driven by Australia-wide trends in fertility and immigration, but it also reflects Victoria’s unique fortunes – particularly a recent reversal of inter-state migration flows in Victoria’s favour.
In turn these dynamics are reshaping the regional balance of Victoria, and recasting Melbourne’s urban landscape. For example, for the first time in Melbourne’s history, housing developments in existing areas currently outweigh greenfield developments on Melbourne’s fringe.
This paper outlines the emergence of these trends and explores their consequences, presenting analysis from each level of .i.d’s analytical method. An understanding of state-level population flows is of limited use if you don’t know to which regions, towns and suburbs those flows will be directed.
World Urbanisation Trends
This paper provides a snapshot of the world’s urban population in 2014 by country and forecasts by country urban populations in 2050.
Prosperous Futures: Understanding The Potential Of Australia’s Regional Cities Case Studies: Goulburn And Orange, New South Wales
Regional Australia Institute
The connection between the competitive advantage of a region and actual growth experience is complex. Some regions with a high degree of competitive advantage remain ‘below par’ in terms of economic performance or population growth, while other regions perform well in the sense of growth and development, despite being under-endowed with the competitiveness factors of other regions. To understand how competitive advantage and growth can become more closely aligned, the Regional Australia Institute (RAI) is developing a series of case studies of successful regional cities, starting with Goulburn and Orange in NSW.
This project seeks to better understand the differences between competitive advantage and successful regional development outcomes through the use of qualitative research methods. The project is designed to identify areas for policy intervention in regions to foster potential and enable regions to understand and respond to external factors beyond their control. It will enable regions to consider how they can convert competitive advantage or other factors into growth.
The Demographic Facts Of Ageing In Australia Graeme Hugo Prepared For The Aged Care Financing Authority
There is now widespread recognition that Australia’s population is ageing and that this has important implications for the national economy and society. Despite this there is considerable misunderstanding of the nature, scale, location and implications of population ageing in Australia. The aim of this paper is to summarise the basic dimensions of the growth of Australia’s older population over the next two decades.
Demand Analysis Of Housing For Older Australians
Research finds that senior Australians are being forced out of inner and middle ring suburbs they have lived in for their whole lives, due to inadequate planning for retirement villages and other housing built to support independent living.
Where And How Do Older Australians Live?
This article focuses on Australian’s aged 65 years and over – where they lived and the activities they participated in, including paid work and caring for children.